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UNICEF Impact Evaluation Series: Strategies for Causal Attribution


One of the essential elements of an impact evaluation is that it not only measures or describes changes that have occurred but also seeks to understand the role of particular interventions in producing these changes. This process is known as causal attribution. 

This video outlines three broad strategies for causal attribution: 1) estimating the counterfactual; 2) checking the consistency of evidence for the causal relationships made explicit in the theory of change; and 3) ruling out alternative explanations, through a logical, evidence-based process.